Crypto Crash Simulator
Could your portfolio survive a crash? Stress test your allocation against real historical events — Mt. Gox, 2018 crypto winter, COVID, LUNA/FTX, and more.
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Stress Test Settings
Crash Impact: LUNA/UST + FTX Collapse (2022)
The LUNA/UST death spiral in May was followed by FTX's fraud-induced collapse in November. Bitcoin fell from $69,000 to $15,500.
Your portfolio would drop to
$3.28K
| Asset | Before | Drop | After |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | $4.00K | -77% | $920 |
| ETH + Alts | $4.00K | -90% | $400 |
| Stablecoins | $2.00K | -2% | $1.96K |
| Total | $10.00K | -67.2% | $3.28K |
Historical recovery time
After LUNA/UST + FTX Collapse, it took approximately 24 months for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high. Many altcoins never recovered.
How to survive a crash:
- Keep stablecoins as "dry powder" to buy the dip
- Never invest more than you can afford to lose entirely
- Use self-custody wallets — exchanges can freeze withdrawals
- Avoid panic selling — historically, patience has been rewarded
- Keep an emergency fund in fiat outside of crypto
Your 20% stablecoin allocation would have preserved $1.96K through the crash — money you could have used to buy discounted BTC and alts during the recovery.
Protect Your Portfolio
The best time to prepare for a crash is before it happens.
Recommended next steps
Limitations
- •Historical crashes may not reflect future scenarios — new risks can emerge
- •Altcoin drops are modeled as an average — individual coins vary wildly
- •Recovery times are for Bitcoin reaching new ATH — your portfolio may recover differently
- •Does not model cascading effects like exchange failures or forced liquidations
- •Not financial advice — for educational stress-testing only
This tool provides educational information only. It is not financial, tax, or legal advice. Always consult qualified professionals for decisions about your specific situation. Results are based on general patterns and may not reflect your circumstances.
Why Crash Stress Testing Matters
Every crypto investor will experience a major drawdown. Bitcoin has seen 50-85% drops in every market cycle since its creation. The question isn't if a crash will happen, but when and how prepared you are. Stress testing your portfolio helps you:
- Understand your actual risk exposure before a crash happens
- Make allocation changes while you're thinking clearly
- Build conviction so you don't panic sell at the bottom
- Identify how stablecoins and diversification reduce your downside
Lessons from Past Crypto Crashes
The biggest lesson from crypto's five major crashes is that patience has historically been rewarded — but only for those holding quality assets. Bitcoin and Ethereum have recovered from every crash to reach new all-time highs. However, the vast majority of altcoins from 2017-2018 never recovered. This is why most allocation frameworks recommend BTC and ETH as core holdings.
Self-Custody During Crashes
During the FTX collapse, customers with assets on the exchange lost access to their funds. Self-custody with a hardware wallet ensures you maintain control of your crypto regardless of what happens to exchanges. Our wallet setup builder can help you find the right solution.
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Frequently Asked Questions
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